Xcoch and Puuc Archaeology Project | UB Social Systems GIS Laboratory

Intro

The Xcoch and Puuc Archaeology Project, directed by Dr. Ezra Zubrow, is an investigation dealing with climate change, and how civilizations in the Yucatan have adapted to it. The Classic Maya collapse, which occurred between 800 and 900 AD, is of particular interest to researchers delving into this time period. The current change in global temperature if also of great importance to researchers today, as current weather patterns suggest that it is remarkably substantial to the Medieval Warm Period, which occurred around the same time as the Classic Maya collapse. Please take the opportunity to explore our project through the materials provided on this website. Any questions or comments about the project or website may be directed to the appropriate personnel on our Contacts page. Thank you for visiting.

Project

I. Introduction

Research into climate change and human response at the ancient Maya center of Xcoch and the Puuc region of Yucatan, Mexico (Figure 1) has been underway since 2009. The phenomenon known as the Classic Maya collapse (800-900 AD) has intrigued and befuddled researchers for decades. This time period is especially relevant to Arctic researchers because it coincides with the Medieval Warm Period (AD 800-1300), when climatic conditions enabled Norse peoples to explore and colonize the North Atlantic Islands and reach the shores of America long before Columbus (Dugmore et al. 2007; McGovern et al. 2007) How Arctic climate change affected processes of cultural development and decline in the North Atlantic and Maya Lowlands has the potential to inform us today regarding the far reaching and serious cultural-environmental impact of global climate change.

Climate change in the Arctic had potential cultural consequences for many past human societies, even those far from northern Polar Regions. During a relatively warm period of the North Atlantic Islands, the Vikings of the Medieval Warm Period (AD 800-1300) were able to colonize Iceland and Greenland and even explore parts of North America. Their adaptation to this natural environment was made possible by their traditional dairy farming economy as well as hunting and fishing and international trade in exotic goods (Dugmore et al. 2007). By 1400, this adaptation changed with rapid climatic change at the onset of the Little Ice Age, which made their social adaptations difficult to sustain forcing Norse culture to retract and abandon this area altogether, though Inuit cultures thrived in these environmental conditions until recently (McGovern et al. 2009; Dugmore et al. 2009).

Near the beginning of the Medieval Climatic Optimum (AD 800-900), the Maya Lowlands, 7000 km to the south, were experiencing severe disruptions to rainfall patterns leading to sustained periods of drought (Gill 2000; Hodell et al. 2001). For an advanced civilization that was heavily populated and dependant on agriculture, such drying conditions must have contributed to agriculture decline, endemic warfare, reduced trade, and eventual cultural collapse for many lowland Maya centers. How Arctic climate change affected processes of sociocultural development and decline in the North Atlantic and as far away as the Maya Lowlands over a millennium ago has the potential to inform us today regarding the far reaching and serious cultural-environmental impact of global climate change. To understand the complex effects of Arctic climate change requires collecting a wide range of climate and archaeological data from both tropical and Arctic regions, including key Maya centers in the Puuc hills region of the Northern Lowlands of Yucatan, Mexico Climate change has long been seen as a major factor in the decline of ancient Maya civilization. Prolonged cycles of drought affecting agriculture and available drinking water in particular are believed to have being critical in the phenomenon known as the Classic Maya collapse beginning around the 9th century AD. Only recently, however, have Maya researchers begun to contemplate other Maya collapses including evidence for a severe drought occurring between the Preclassic to Classic Maya transition around the 2nd century AD. The role of the climate change involving periods of abundant rainfall and drought cycles were also key factors in the origins and development of Maya culture. These factors are especially relevant in the Northern Maya Lowlands where drought cycles were commonplace and dry seasons could be unpredictably long and precarious even under the best environmental conditions. The correspondence of Arctic warming in early medieval times and the expansion of the Vikings to Iceland and parts west was clearly not coincidental. At this time during this same warming trend, the Southern Maya Lowlands were experiencing severe drought conditions that eventually led to large-scale social disintegrations. Interestingly, some sites in the Puuc hills region of the Northern Lowlands underwent a brief florescence for a century or so before they too succumbed to the effects of climatic warming, prolonged drought, and attendant settlement abandonment. How did the Maya in the North, which is more prone to drought and subject to less rainfall than the South, delay collapse so long (there is no significant surface water in the Puuc region)? Increased tropical cyclonic activity may have been a factor since Yucatan is located on a notorious hurricane path. Warming Atlantic waters including those in the Caribbean Basin provide the raw energy for tropical cyclones caused, in part, by melting Arctic ice caps, warming sea water, and changing ocean currents. These conditions can produce more frequent and more severe storms bringing unpredictable yet heavy rains (and damaging winds) that were sometimes detrimental for sustained agriculture.

Constructing and expanding hydraulic systems of rainwater capture including reservoirs (aguadas) and underground water cisterns (chultuns) by labor-intensive means for water storage to capture periodic but torrential rainfall from tropical storms and hurricane events could have been a short-term strategy employed by some Puuc Maya for local irrigation agriculture and replenish local drinking water supplies. Openings to the subterranean water table such as at deep caves contexts would have been at a premium given that so few are known for the Puuc region.

The aguada zone south of Xcoch, for example, shows preliminary evidence of possible irrigation canals associated with ponding features in a rich agricultural zone of modern farm fields near the town of Santa Elena (Smyth and Ortegón 2008). Irrigation and the long-term storage of surplus production (maize, beans, squash, and chili peppers; Smyth 1989, 1990) could have been local responses to changing rainfall patterns brought on by rapid global climate change. These adaptive strategies, however, would have only delayed the inevitable in the event of prolonged drought caused by rapid climate change. Water storage intensification and changing patterns of rainfall are being reconstructed by systematic sampling of aguadas and caves at Xcoch and elsewhere in the Puuc region. A global cultural comparison of adaptation is how the Greenland Vikings in the 1300s responded to the cooling Arctic temperatures of the Little Ice Age by shifting their diet from agricultural produce to food from the sea (Richardson 2000), but cooling forced their eventual abandon of this area altogether.

I-B. Location

The Puuc is a Mayan term that literally means “hills.” Located in the northwest portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, Puuc but has several other meanings such as: 1) a geographic area 2) an archaeological region 3) an architectural style and 4) a period in the history of the Maya. The Puuc contains two physiographic zones covering an area of 2,861 km² for the state of Yucatan: a northwest-southeast trending ridge system approaching 100 m in height (Sierrita de Ticul) with an area of low hills and bedded limestone south of the ridge system (Santa Elena District), and an extensive zone of cone karst hills (Bolonchen District). Within these zones are found the archaeological Puuc sites of Uxmal, Kabah, and Labná and the centers of Sayil, Chac and Xcoch which are the subjects of the proposed research. The Puuc proper or Santa Elena District forms the northernmost component of the central hill system. The ridge appears to be the result of down-to-the-basin faulting associated with uplift and Eocene emergence of the peninsula. Sedimentary deposits along the north edge of the ridge suggest that it may have functioned as a Miocene shoreline (Weidie and Ward 1976). The strata of the Santa Elena District and the Sierrita itself consist of massive beds of fossiliferous, reddish Eocene limestones (Dunning 1992).

The water table in the Santa Elena District lies up to 65 m in depth while in the Bolonchen District, depth to ground water may reach 100 m below the surface. The Prehispanic Maya did not have the technology to penetrate the various bedrocks layers to artificially access the water table. The uppermost bedrock layer is a residual indurated caprock underlain by a layer of soft marl known as sascab and both can vary considerably in thickness ranging from about 10 cm to over 1.5 m (Isphording and Wilson 1973; Dunning 1992). The variability of caprock and sascab were extremely important for prehispanic settlement in the region. Because of the long winter dry season and the lack of permanent natural water sources, the Maya penetrated the caprock and excavated the soft lime marl creating subsurface cisterns (chultuns) to store rainwater during the summer rainy season. Hundreds of such chultun features are known for the sites of Sayil, Chac, and Xcoch as well as elsewhere in the Puuc region. Other important water features include clay-lined dry sinks (aguadas) and deep cave systems; there are no sinkhole (cenotes) in the Puuc region proper but there are a number of them a short distance north of the Puuc ridge. Aguadas are more common in the Puuc region but there are only three deep cave systems have been documented as reaching the permanent water table: Gruta Xcoch, Gruta de Chac, and Gruta de Xtacumbilxunam (E.W. Andrews IV 1965; Matheny 1978; Mercer 1896; Smyth 2000; Smyth and Ortegon 2008; Stephens 1843).

I-B. 1. Climate

The Puuc region and much of northern Yucatan is characterized by a Tropical/Dry Winter Koeppen climate type with an average temperature of about 18° C and a pronounced winter dry season. The major controls on climate affecting seasonal rainfall are the peninsula’s latitude, low elevation, its flat terrain, and the warm waters that surround it, high atmospheric pressure over the Atlantic, and the prevailing easterly trade winds (Vivo Escoto 1964). During the dry season lasting, from November through April , a southwestward shift of the Atlantic High produces descending air aloft reducing the cloud formation through evaporation of cloud moisture and the interruption of rainy season convection patterns. In the summer and fall months (May through October), the peninsular lies directly in the path of the easterly trade winds. There is a daily buildup of thunderstorms that are carried westward by the trade winds. Mean annual rainfall in the Puuc region is around 1100 mm, though variation in long-term annual average can be as high as 30 percent (Wilson 1980). The rainy season usually yields two periods of rainfall maximum: late June to early July and early to mid September. Between these two peaks is a period of variable rainfall locally referred to as the canicula. During drought years, the canicula can be severe with little or no rainfall from mid-July to mid- September. Under these conditions, maize crops that are not irrigated will be lost (such as during the drought of 2009). Rainfall can be radically altered by tropical storms/hurricanes and winter dry season cold fronts known as nortes, which are breakouts of polar air masses from North America that reach the Yucatan peninsula and bring lower temperatures, overcast skies, windy conditions, and sometimes rain. Yucatan lies on one of the most frequent tropical storm tracks arriving between August and October. Such storms bring high winds, tornados, and heavy rainfall and can have devastating impacts even at interior locations. Category 5 Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 and Category 3 Hurricane Isadore in 2002, for instance, destroyed 90 percent of the maize crop across large areas of the Yucatan including the Puuc region.Indeed, there is growing evidence that past the climate of the Yucatan Peninsula has varied greatly over the past 3000 years (Covich and Stuiver 1986; Dahlin 1983, 1986; Dahlin et al. 1992; Folan 1985; Folan et al. 1983; Messenger; 1990; Hodell et al. 2001; Haug et al. 2003; Lozano-Garcia et al. 2007; Mueller et al. 2009; Webster et al. 2007; Moyes et al. 2009). Located near the northern edge of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Northern Maya Lowlands have been particularly effected by global climate changes and resultant patterns of rainfall impacting agriculture and domestic consumption.

I-C. Archaeological History

Modern research at the Puuc region sites of Sayil, Chac II, and Xcoch began at Sayil with the mapping of the site’s large monumental architecture by Edwin Shook in 1934 and 1935. Rubert and Smith (1957) made a brief visit in 1953 to map the floor plans of several house structures. Pollock’s (1980) impressive architectural survey of the Puuc included the collection of information from several major buildings ay Sayil, While George Andrews (1975, 1985) later surveyed, updated, and extended many of Pollock’s characterizations of Sayil’s standing buildings. Mexican archaeologists have undertaken numerous building consolidations at Sayil, Including Ramon Carrasco’s and Sylviane Bouchers’s (1990) architectural excavations at the Great North Palace and Lourdes Toscanos recent stabilizations in 2009.

Sabloff, Tourtellot, and colleagues (1982-1989) initiated a comprehensive site-focused study of settlement patterns at Sayil. This project documented and sampled architecture by intensive mapping (Phase I), and limited surface collection, excavation, and soil testing (Phase II), producing a detailed site map covering 3.5 sq km of the site’s architectural remains. These studies defined many of the settlement boundaries of Sayil proper, documented considerable architectural variability and revealed the presence of significant architectural and nonarchitectural surface and soil patterning (Carmean 1991; Dunning 1989, 1991, 1992; Killion et al. 1989; Sabloff et al. 1984, 1985; Sabloff and Tourtellot 1991; Tourtellot et al. 1988, 1989; Tourtellot and Sabloff 1993). In 1990 and 1992, Smyth and Dore directed systematic surface survey and soil testing (Phase III) at the site-scale to reconstruct community activities and aspects of site organization at Sayil. Employing methods of large-scale surface collection, data on surface artifacts and soils were sampled from all settlement contexts, architectural and nonarchitectural. Phase II of the Sayil Project explored urban phenomena and northern Lowland Maya adaptations to semi-arid tropical environmental conditions (Smyth and Dore 1992s, 1992b, 1994, Smyth et al. 1995).

Field research at Chac (II), located 1.7 km northwest of Sayil, began as an outgrowth of the surface collection survey at Sayil. In 1995, a program of intensive survey at Chac included settlement mapping, systematic surface collection, and soil testing. It became immediately apparent that Chac was an independent settlement and the survey documented a dense settlement area covering 3 sq km. In 1996-2003, a large program of architectural excavation and consolidation at the Chac Pyramid Plaza and the Central Acropolis was undertaken to reconstruct the site’s architectural chronology that now begins in the Early Classic period. In addition, test pitting across the site and horizontal exposures of two large residential compounds took place to behavioral reconstruct nonelite architecture and domestic activity patterns and results show evidence for foreign intrusions at the site. In addition, the nearby Gruta de Chac (I) was opened, explored, and sampled including the mapping and test excavation of its related settlement and it was determined that Chac water cave and the Chac (II) site were one and the same site (Smyth 2000).Work at the site of Xcoch, located between the town of Santa Elena and archaeological zone of Uxmal, began in 2006 and remains ongoing. Mapping survey and surface collection now cover more than 1 sq km, though the entire site may extend over an area of 6 sq km. A program of test excavations has sampled most of the surveyed areas of the site as well as numerous water features such as aguadas, canals, and chultuns. Dating results show that Xcoch was a large settlement with huge monumental architecture in the Middle Preclassic period and grow to its maximum size before being rapidly depopulated at the end of the Late Classic period. Exploration, mapping and sampling of the Xcoch water cave, located in the middle of the site, as well as another deep cave 11 km to the east (LaVaca Perdida cave) have produced speleothem and pollen core evidence of significant drought cycles at the end of the Preclassic and Late Classic periods that must have strongly impacted settlement occupation at Xcoch.

During Year 1 of the project, we will to organize and cross-reference the existing paleoecological datasets from eastern Kamchatka, and identify locations for new core samples. Archaeological investigations will drive the selection of paleoenvironmental sample sites. Bourgeois and colleagues have already collected cores near the proposed study area. In Year 2, we will begin our own survey of the paleoenvironment in the study area. In preliminary field and laboratory work carried out in 2007 and 2008, we recovered core samples from the main environmental contexts at both OFL and YLI. Affiliated researchers at McGill University are sampling and analyzing the cores for pollen and macrofossil content, and for isotopic variation. We will collect representative cores from bogs adjacent to archaeological sites in Kamchatka in order to correlate environmental changes with episodes of human occupation. These core samples will be collected using manual augers, or in difficult to penetrate locations, with a piston driven coring device. Core stratigraphy will be documented in the field, noting parameters such as Munsell color, mineral grain size (sand, silt and clay), abundance and quality of organic matter. Tephra layers will be noted and sampled, in order to date the strata. Cored sediments then can then subdivided for shipment to the laboratory. Sediments will be sampled at high resolution and analyzed for chemical composition, pollen, and macro-organics. We will use conventional palynological treatments: hydrochloric acid to dissolve carbonates, hydrofluoric acid to dissolve silicates, potassium hydroxide and acetolysis to remove the organic matter (Moore, et al. 1991). Macro-organics from those samples will be sorted to isolate identifiable plant parts to be sent for 14C dating by a contract laboratory.

II-E. 3. GIS Project

The GIS portion of this project will involve a regional settlement pattern analysis of Mayan sites in the Puuc region, a comparison of intrasite spatial analyses of artifact distributions from the sites of xcoch, sayil and choc, and the modeling of hydrology within the site Xcoch.

Regional GIS

The regional GIS of the Puuc region will examine the distribution and size of sites over time so that this development may be compared with environmental and climatic records from spelothem and pollen analysis.

Intrasite spatial analysis

Extensive systematic surface collection surveys have been completed over the past 20 years by Michael Smyth and his team. The data from these surveys includes ceramic and lithic count and attribute data from 3x3m collection squares. Sub-surface test units were also excavated throughout the sites of choc and xcoch. The ceramics are classified according to vessel type and ware type which provides the ages of the ceramic. The data will be subject to kernel density estimates and unconstrained clustering to determine the use of space across the sites over time and over the climatic sequence. These results will also be compared to the architectural maps to determine how well the structural remains compare to the activity distribution within the sites.

Hydrology modeling

The site of xcoch contains evidence of a significant hydrological system, including water catchment areas and irrigation canals, which would probably have been created to counteract the lack of rain during dry periods. We will create a detailed ground map of the site by taking close interval total station points in order to model the surface water flow.

GIS layers have been produced by integrating terrestrial models, archaeological datasets, and environmental datasets from YLI and OFL. The present proposal will incorporate data from the Kamchatka peninsula. The GIS portion of the Kamchatka project has already begun. The research team at the University at Buffalo is currently gathering GIS data and digitizing maps for Kamchatka. The three modeled and dated GIS projects will allow comparison of diachronic changes in these three regions, across three environmental-temporal periods. Spatial analysis of the changes in environment and society can help explain how changes in human technology, exploitation of resources and land use occurred in KRE, YLI and OFL. Included in the integrated GIS databases are both existing and new paleoenvironmental, archaeological, and terrain data for each of the study areas. These databases will be available on a dedicated website. The paleoenvironmental and archaeological data will be merged using ESRI’s ArcGIS in order to provide comprehensive models of the relationship between environment and prehistoric society at the regional scale. We will create archaeological and environmental layers for each of the regions from the three periods being examined. For the environmental layers, we will interpolate data from the pollen cores to estimate environmental zones. Interpolation is a process performed within GIS to predict values for a surface from a number of sample data points. The environmental layers will consist of polygons representing individual environmental zones and containing information on the environmental characteristics of the individual areas. The archaeological layers will consist of site locations, points in the landscape, and detailed information about materials recovered during excavation. If there are several related sites from one period we will create layers displaying network connectivity between sites. We will create regional models by combining several archaeological and environmental layers into a single map. Then we can generate predictive models of archaeological site locations based on known site locations or to simply estimate past land use over a landscape at a given point in time (Wheatley and Gillings 2002).

III. Broader Impacts and Intellectual Merit

The circumpolar North is often seen as an observatory for changing relations between human societies and environments. This project will help place the circumpolar North into wider contexts with its focus on climate, time and space, change and movement. As a coordinated program of research on the North it will enhance synergies between the social and natural sciences. This project has two broad impacts. One will be the far-reaching benefits of an increased understanding of human-environment interaction. We will disseminate the results of this research at conferences and in scholarly journals, and in an edited report which will bring together the various interdisciplinary sub-projects into a cohesive whole. This project will also support the education of undergraduate and graduate students, and will provide a context for the mentoring of post-doctoral scholars. The intellectual merit of this project is its interdisciplinary approach to a broad circumpolar comparison of human-environment interaction. The methods of paleoenvironmental, geological, and archaeological research reveal very specific types of information. In an interdisciplinary project, these small pieces of the puzzle will be assembled to create a detailed picture of changes in human culture and environmental conditions over time. ICAP is meant to become part of a larger archaeological research project known as the Global Archaeological Project (GAP). GAP, which is an initiative of the University of Cambridge and the University at Buffalo, will utilize data from the three subarctic points of YLI, OFL, and KRE, to compare with data from three points in the temperate zone, and three points in the tropical zone. Among the archaeologists who have expressed a desire to participate in GAP are Graeme Barker, head of archaeology at the University of Cambridge, Martin Jones, also of the University of Cambridge, Peter F. Biehl of the University at Buffalo, who supervises work on the western mound at Catalhoyuk, and Francoise Audouze of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique in Paris.

Methods

GIS Methods

Regional GIS

Intrasite spatial analysis

Hydrology modeling

People

Ezra Zubrow, PhD., Principal Investigator
Dr. Ezra Zubrow is the principal investigator for the Xcoch and Puuc archaeological project and is the current director of the Social Systems GIS Laboratory at University at Buffalo.

Greg Korosec, M.A, PhD. Student
Greg is currently the Associate Lab Director, Social Systems GIS Laboratory, University at Buffalo. His research interests include GIS, landscape, resilience, geoarchaeology, the Russian Far East, Neolithic Northern Finland, and CRM.

Dustin Keeler, PhD.
Dustin is a post-dcotoral researcher at the Social Sytems Gis Lab at the Unibersity at Buffalo. His research centers on Upper Paleolithic Western Europe, Neolithic Northern Finland and Kamchatka, Russia. He also maintains interests in regional settlement patterns and intrasite structure.

Michael Smyth, PhD.
Dr. Michael Smyth is a professor of Anthropology at Rollins College in Winter Park, Florida. Hhe focuses his work on Mayan civilization, and has led expeditions into the Yucatan for over 20 years. Dr. Smyth’s most recent field work is at Xcoch in the Yucatan, and has been a great contributor to projects being carried out by Dr. Zubrow’s team.

References

Adams, R. M. 1978 Strategies of Maximization, Stability, and Resilience in Mesopotamian Society, Settlement, and Agriculture. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 122(5):329-335.
Alley, R. B., J. Marotzke, W. D. Nordhaus, J. T. Overpeck, D. M. Peteet, R. A. Pielke Jr., R. T. Pierrehumbert, P. B. Hines, T. F. Stocker, L. D. Talley, and J. M. Wallace 2003 Abrupt Climate Change. Science 299:2005-2010.
Andrews, E. W., IV 1965 Explorations in the Gruta de Chac, Yucatan, Mexico. Middle American Research Institute Publication 31. Tulane University, New Orleans. Andrews, G. 1975 Maya Cities: Placemaking and Urbanization. Univeristy of Oklahoma Press, Norman.
1985 Chenes-Puuc Architecture: Chronology and Cultural Interaction. In Arquitectura y Arqueologia:Metodologias en la Cronologia de Yucatan, CEMCA Etudes Mesoamerlcaines Serle 2, No.8, pp. 11-40.Centre’d Etudes Mexicaines et Centrameicaines, Embajada Francia en Mexico, Mexico, D.F.
Bernal, Juan Pablo, Matthew Lachniet, Malcolm McCulloch, Graham Mortimer, Pedro Morales, and Edith Cienfuegos 2011 A speleothem record of Holocene climate variability from southwestern Mexico. Quaternary Research 75:104-113.
Black, D. E., L. C. Peterson, J. T. Overpeck, A. Kaplan, M. N. Evans, and M. Kashgarian 1999 Eight centuries of North Atlantic Ocean atmosphere variability. Science 286:1709-1713.
Black, D. E., R. C. Thunell, A. Kaplan, L. C. Peterson, and E. J. Tappa 2004 A 2000-year record of Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic hydrographic variability, Paleoceanography 19:1-11.
Carmean, Kelli 1991 Architectural Labor Investments and Social Stratification at Sayil, Yucatan, Mexico. Latin American Antiquity 2: 151-165.
Carrasco, V. R Ramon y Sylviane Boucher 1990 El Palacio de Sayil (Estructura 2Bl): Un Estudio Crono1ógico. In Mesoamerica y Norte de Mexico, Siglo lX- XlI, edited by F. Sodi Miranda, pp. 59-85. Instituto Nacional de Antropologia e Historia, Mexico, D.F.
Chiang, J.C.H., Kushnir, and Y. A.Giannini 2002 Deconstructing Atlantic Inter Tropical Convergence Zone variability: Influence of the local cross-equatorial sea surface temperature gradient, and remote forcing from the eastern equatorial Pacific, Journal of Geophysical Research 107:4004.
Costopoulos, A., S. Vaneeckhout, I. Paberzyte, E. L. Hulse, and J. Okkonen 2006 Clear evidence of black painted Typical Comb ceramics at Kierikki. Fennoscandia Archaeologica 23:55-59.
Covich, A.P., and M. Struiver 1974 Changes in Oxygen 18 as a Measure of Long-term flucuations in =Tropical Lake Levels and Molluscan Populations. Limnology and Oceanography 19: 682-91.
Dahlin, Bruce H. 1983 Climate and Prehistory on the Yucatan Peninsula. Climate Change 5:245-63.
2002 Climate Change and the End of the Classic Period in Yucatan: Resolving a Paradox. Ancient Mesoamerica 12(2):327-340.
2010 Final Report (0716015), Collaborative Research: Speleothem Proxies for Maya Culture-Climate Interactions. Report to the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.
In press A tale of Three Cities: Effects of the A.D. 356 Event in the Lowland Maya Heartlands, Chapter 5 in The Great Maya Droughts in Cultural Context, edited by Gyles Iannone, University of Colorado Press.
Demarest, Arthur A., Prudence Rice, and Don S. Rice The Terminal Classic in the Maya Lowlands: Assessing Collapses, Terminations, and Transformations. In The Terminal Classic in the Maya Lowlands: Collapse, Transition, and Transformation, pp. 545-572, edited by A.A. Demarest, P. Rice, and D.S. Rice, University Press of Colorado.
Dugmore, A. J., C. Keller and T.H. McGovern 2007 Reflections on climate change, trade, and the contrasting fates of human settlements in the North Atlantic islands. Arctic Anthropology 44:12 -36.
Dugmore, A. J., C. Keller, T. H. McGovern, A. F. Casely, and K. Smiarowski 2009 Norse Greenland settlement and limits to adaptation. In Adapting to Climate Change: Thresholds, Values, Governance, pp. 96-113, edited by W. Neil Adger, Irene Lorenzoni and Karen O’Brien. Cambridge University Press.
Dull, R. A., Southon, J. R. & Sheets, P. 2001 Volcanism, ecology and culture: a reassessment of the Volcán IlopangoTBJ eruption in the southern Maya realm. Latin American Antiquity 12: 25-44.
Dunning, Nicholas P. 1989 Archaelogical Investigations at Sayil, Yucatan, Mexico: Intersite Reconnaissance and Soil Studies During the 1987 Field Season, University of Pittsburgh Publications in Anthropology No.2. Pittsburgh.
1991 Appendix I, Soils and Settlement in the Sayil Valley: A Preliminary Assessment in The Ancient Maya City of Sayil: The Mapping of a Puuc Region Center, by J .A. Sabloff and G. Tourtellot, pp. 20-27, Publication No. 60. Middle American Research Institute, Tulane University, New Orleans.
1992 Lords of the Hills: Ancient Maya Settlement in the Puuc Region,Yucatán, México. Prehistory Press, Madison. Dunning Nicholas P., Eric Weaver, Michael P. Smyth, and David Ortegon Zapata 2011 Xcoch: Home of Ancient Maya Rain Gods and Water Managers. In The Archaeology of Yucatan: New Directions and Data, edited by T. Stanton BAR International Series, Oxford (in press).
Fedick, Scott L. 1994 Ancient Maya Agricultural Terracing in the Upper Belize River Area. Ancient Mesoamerica 5:107-127, Cambridge University Press.
Finch, William A. 1964 The Karst Landscape of Yucatan. National Research Council,Washington, D.C. Fleitmann, Dominik, Christoph Spötl, Louise Newman, and Thorsten Kiefer, (Eds.) 2008 News, Advances in Speleothem Research, Vol. 16 No 3. http://www.pages-igbp.org/cgi-bin/WebObjects/products.woa/wa/product?id=303
Folan, William J. Flora, Fauna, e Hidrologia: La Paleoclimatología y Prehistoria de Dzibilchaltun, Yucatán, y sus alrededores. In Arquitectura r Arqueología: Metodologias en la Cronología de Yucatán, CEMCA Estudes Mésoamericaines 2/8, pp. 77-88. Centro de Estudios Mexicanos y Centro Americanos, Embajada Francia en México, México, D.F.
Folan W. J., J. Gunn, J. D. Eaton, and R. W. Patch. 1983 Paleoclimatological Patterning in Southern Mesoamerica. Journal of Field Archaeology 10: 454-468.
Folke, C. 2006 Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change 16:253-267.
Ford, Anabel 1990 Maya Settlement in the Belize River Area: Variations in Residence Patterns of the Central Maya Lowlands. In Precolumbian Population History in the Maya Lowlands, eds. T. Patrick Culbert and Don S. Rice, pp. 167–81. University of New México Press, Albuquerque.
Gabriel, Jeremy J., Eduard G. Reinhardt, Matthew C. Peros, Dawn E. Davidson, Peter J. van Hengstum and Patricia A. Beddows 2009 Palaeoenvironmental evolution of Cenote Aktun Ha (Carwash) on the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico and its response to Holocene sea-level rise Journal of Paleolimnology Vol. 42, Number 2.
Gill, R. B. 2000 The Great Maya Drought: Water Life and Death. University of New Mexico Press. Albuquerque. Gill, R. B., P. A. Mayewski, J. Nyberg, G. H. Haug, and L. C. Peterson 2007 Drought and the Maya collapse. Ancient Mesoamerica 18:283-302.
Marco Aurelio González Tagle 2009 “Biodiversity and climate change: adaption of land use systems.” Proceedings of the international symposium com workshop on “Biodiversity and Climate Change: Adaption of Land Use Systems,” Merida, Yucatan, Mexico, 14 – 18.08. Red Cientifica Alemania Latinoamérica.
Gunn, Joel D. (editor) 2000 The Years without Summer: Tracing A.D. 536 and its aftermath. BAR International Series 872.
Haug Gerald H., Gerald H. Haug, Konrad A. Hughen, Daniel M. Sigman,Larry C. Peterson, and Ursula Röhl 2001 Southward Migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone Through the Holocene. Science 293:1304-1308.
Haug Gerald H., Detlef Günther, Larry C. Peterson, Daniel M. Sigman, Konrad A. Hughen, and Beat Aeschlimann. 2003 Climate and the Collapse of Maya Civilization. Science 299:1731-1735.
Isphording, W. C. and E. M. Wilson 1973 Weathering Processes and Physical Subdivisions of Northern Yucatan. Proceedings of the Association of American Geographers 5: 117-20. Hegmon, M., M. A. Peeples, A. P. Kinzig, S. Kulow, C. M. Meegan and M. C.Nelson 2008 Social transformation and its human costs in the prehispanic US Southwest. American Anthropologist 110(3):313-324.
Hilleshiem Michael B., David A. Hodell, Barbara W. Leyden, Mark Brenner, Jason H. Curtis, Flavio S. Anselmetti, Daniel Ariztegui, David G. Buck, Thomas P. Guilderson, Michael F. Rosenmeier,and Douglas W. Schnurrenberger 2005 Climate Change in Lowland Central America during the Late Deglacial and Early Holocene Journal of Quaternary Science 20:363-376.
Hodell, David A., Mark Brenner, and Jason H. Curtis 2000 Climate Change in the Northern American Tropics and Subtropics since the Last Ice Age: Implications for Environment and Culture. In Imperfect Balance: Landscape Transformations in the Precolumbian Americas, edited by David L. Lentz, pp. 13-38. Columbia University Press, New York.
Hodell, D. A., J. H. Curtis, M. Brenner, and T.P. Guilderson 2001 Solar Forcing of Drought Frequency in the Maya Lowlands. Science 292-1367-1370.
Hodell, David A., Mark Brenner, Jason H. Curtis, Roger Medina-González, Enrique Ildefonso-Chan Can, Alma Albornaz-Pat and Thomas P. Guilderson 2005 Climate change on the Yucatan Peninsula during the Little Ice Age, Quaternary Research 63:109-121.
Hulse, E. L. 2008 The difference between dirt and other dirt: Using multivariate statistical analysis to classify chemical soil enrichment at Late Stone Age archaeological sites in North Ostrobothnia, Finland. Ph.D. Dissertation. Anthropology Department. State University of New York at Buffalo.
Hulse, E. L. and A. Costopoulos 2008 Spatial patterning within a 5000-year-old structure in Northern Finland. In Space – Archaeology’s Final Frontier? An Intercontinental Approach, edited by R. B. Salisbury and D. Keeler, pp. 106-133. Cambridge Scholars Publishing, Newcastle, UK.
Hulse, Eva, Dustin Keeler, Ezra Zubrow, Gregory Korosec, Irina Ponkratova, and Caitlin Curtis 2011 Preliminary Report on Archaeological Fieldwork in the Kamchatka Region of Russia. Sibirica: Interdisciplinary Journal of Siberian Studies. Volume 10. Issue 1. pp. 48-74. 2011.
Hurrell, J. W. 1995 Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676-679.
Hurrell, J.W., Y. Kushnir, and M. Visbeck 2001 The North Atlantic Oscillation Science 291:603-604.
Jensen, Lillian Magelund and Jesper Madsen 2011 The Arctic as a Messenger for Global Processes: Climate Change and Pollution. Aarhus University, Copenhagen.
Killion, T. W., J. A. Sabloff, G. Tourtellot, and N. P. Dunning 1989 Surface Assemblages at Terminal Classic (A.D. 800-1000) Sayil, Puuc Region, Yucatan, Mexico. Journal of Field Archaeology 16: 273-294.
Knudsen, Mads Faurschou, Marit-Solveig Seidenkrantz, Bo Holm Jacobsen and Antoon Kuijpers 2011 Nature Communications 2:178 | DOI: 10.1038/ncomms1186 | ww.nature.com/naturecommunications
Kreutz K. J., P. A. Mayewski, L. D. Meeker, M. S. Twickler, S. I. Whitlow, and I. I. Pittalwala, 1997 Bipolar Changes in Atmospheric Circulation During the Little Ice Age Science 277:1294-1296.
Kump, L.R., J.F. Kasting, and R.G.Crane, 2010 The Earth System. 3rd Edition, Pearson Prentice Hall, New Jersey, pp. 57-106.
Lozano-Garcia Maria del Socorro, Margarita Caballero, Beatriz Ortega, Alejandro Rofriquez, and Susana Sosa 2007 Tracing the Effects of the Little Ice Age in the Tropical Lowlands of Eastern Mesoamerica. PNAS 104:16200-16203.
Mann, Michael E., Jonathan D. Woodruff, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, and Zhihua Zhang 2009 Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years. Nature 460:doi:10.1038/nature08219
Mason, Ben G., David M. Pyle, and Clive Oppenheimer 2004 The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on Earth. Bulletin of Volcanology 66 (8): 735-748. doi:10.1007/s00445-004-0355-9.
Matheny, Raymond T. 1978 Northern Maya Water-Control Systems. In Pre-Hispanic Maya Agriculture, edited by P. Harrison and B.L. Turner, pp. 185-210. UNM Press.
Medina-Elizalde, Martín, Stephen J. Burns, David W. Lea, Yemane Asmerom, Lucien von Gunten, Victor Polyak, Mathias Vuille, and Ambarish Karmalkar 2010 High resolution stalagmite climate record from the Yucatán Peninsula spanning the Maya terminal classic period. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2010.08.016
McGovern, T. H., O. Véteinsson, A Frioriksson, M. J Church, I. T. Lawson, I. A. Simpson, and A. Einarsson, A. J. Dugmore, G. T. Cook, S. Perdikaris, K. J. Edwards, A. M. Thomson, W. P. Adderley, A. J. Newton, G. Lucas, R. Edvardsson, O. Aldred, and E. Dunbar 2007 Settlement, sustainability, and environmental catastrophe in Northern Iceland American Anthropologist 109: 27 -51.
Mercer, Henry Chapman 1975 The Hill-Caves of Yucatan : A Search for Evidence of Man’s Antiquity in the Caverns of Central America by Henry C. Mercer with a New Introduction by Sir J. Eric S. Thompson. University of Oklahoma Press, Norman.
Messenger, L. C. Jr. 1990 Ancient Winds of Change: Climate Settings and Prehistoric Social Complexity in Mesoamerica. Ancient Mesoamerica 1:21-40.
Moyes, Holley 2002 The use of GIS in the spatial analysis of an archaeological cave site. Journal of Cave and Karst Studies 64(1): 9-16.
Moyes, Holley, Jaime J. Awe, George A. Brook, and James W. Webster 2009 The Ancient Maya Drought Cult: Late Classic Cave use in Belize. Latin American Antiquity 20:175-206.
Mueller Andreas D., Gerald A. Islebeb, Michael B. Hillesheim, Dustin A. Grzesik, Flavio S. Anselmetti, Daniel Ariztegui, Mark Brenner, Jason H. Curtis, David A. Hodell, and Kathryn A. Venz
2009 Climate drying and associated forest decline in the lowlands of northern Guatemala during the late Holocene. Quaternary Research 71:133-141.
Nyberg, J., B. A. Malmgren, A. Kuijpers, and A. Winter 2002 A centennial-scale variability of tropical North Atlantic surface hydrography during the late Holocene, Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology 183:25-41.
Peeples, M. A., C. M. Barton, and S. Schmich 2006 Resilience lost: Intersecting land use and landscape dynamics in the prehistoric southwestern United States. Ecology and Society 11(2):18.
Pollock, Harry E. D. 1980 “The Puuc: An Architectural Survey of the Hill Country of Yucatan and Northern Campeche, Mexico.” Peabody Museum of Archaeology and Ethnology Memoirs 19, Harvard University, Cambridge.
Pyburn, J. 2010 A 2,205-year record of tropical cyclone strikes near Yucatan, Mexico, from mud layers in a stalagmite. unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation. Boston University, Boston.
Pyburn, J. and Frappier, A. 2009. A Stratigraphic Record of Tropical Cyclone Landfall in a Stalagmite from a Low-Lying Cave in Yucatán, Mexico. Northeast Section Meeting of the Geological Society of America. 44th Annual Meeting. Portland, Maine: March 22-24.
Redman, C. L. 2 005 Resilience theory in archaeology. American Anthropologist 107(1):70-77.
Redman, C. L. and A. P. Kinzig 2003 Resilience of past landscapes: resilience theory, society, and the longue durée. Conservation Ecology 7(1):14.
Richardson S. 2000 Vanished Vikings. Discover 21:64-69. Rubert, Karl, and A. Ledyard Smith 1957 “House Types in the Environs of Mayapan and Uxmal, Kabah, Chichen Itza, and Chacchob,” Carnegie Institution of Washington, Current Reports 39, Washington, D.C.
Sabloff, Jeremy A., and Gair Tourtellot 1991 The Ancient Maya City of Sayil: The Mapping of a Puuc Region Center. Middle American Research Institute Publication 60. Tulane University, New Orleans.
Sabloff, Jeremy A., Gair Tourtellot, Patricia A. McAnany, Bernard Fahmel Beyer, Tomas Gallareta, Signa Larralde, and LuAnn Wandsnider 1984 Ancient Maya Settlement Patterns at the Site of Sayil, Puuc Region, Yucatan, Mexico: Initial Reconnaissance (1983). Latin American Institute Research Series No. 14. University of New Mexico, Albuquerque.
Sabloff, Jeremy A., Gair Tourtellot, Bernad Fahmel Beyer, Patricia A. McAnany, Diana Christensen, Sylviane Boucher and Thomas W. Killion 1985 Settlement and Community Patterns at Sayil. Yucatán,Mexico:The 1984 Season Latin American Institute Research Series No. 17, April 1985, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque.
Sever, Thomas L., and Daniel E. Irwin 2003 Landscape Archaeology: Remote-sensing investigation of the ancient Maya in the Peten rainforest of northern Guatemala. Ancient Mesoamerica 14: 113-122. Sheets, Payson D. (ed.) 1983 Archaeology and volcanism in Central America. University of Texas Press, Austin.
Smyth, Michael P. 1989 Domestic Storage Behavior in Mesoamerica: An Ethnoarchaeological Approach. In Archaeological Method and Theory, Volume 1, edited by M.B. Schiffer, pp. 89-138, University of Arizona Press, Tucson.
1990 Maize Storage Among the Puuc Maya: The Development of an Archaeological Method. Ancient Mesoamerica 1:51-69. Cambridge University Press.
1999 A New Study of the Gruta de Chac, Yucatan, Mexico. Foundation for the Advancement of Mesoamerican Studies, Inc. Crystal River, FL (www.famsi.org).
Smyth, Michael P., and Christopher D. Dore 1992a Large Site Archaeological Methods at Sayil, Yucatán, México: Investigating Community Organization at a Prehispanic Maya Center. Latin American Antiquity 3:3-21.
1992b Large Site Archaeology at Sayil, Yucatan, Mexico: A Preliminary Report. Mexicon 14: 52-56.
1994 Maya Urbanism at Sayil, Yucatán. National Geographic Research and Exploration 10: 38-55.
Smyth, Michael P., Christopher D. Dore, and Nicholas P. Dunning 1995 Interpreting Prehistoric Settlement Patterns: Lessons From the Maya Center of Sayil, Yucatán. Journal of Field Archaeology 22 (3): 321-347.
Smyth, Michael P., José Ligorred P., David Ortegón Z., and Pat Farrell 1998 An Early Classic Center in the Puuc Region: New Data from Chac II, Yucatán, México. Ancient Mesoamerica 9:233-257.
Smyth, Michael P. and Daniel Rogart 2004 A Teotihuacan Presence at Chac II, Yucatan, Mexico: Implications for Early Political Economy at the Puuc Region. Ancient Mesoamerica 15:17-47.
Smyth, Michael P. and David Ortegón Zapata 2006 Foreign Lords and Early Classic Interaction at Chac,Yucatan. In Lifeways in the Northern Maya Lowlands: New Approaches to Archaeology in the Yucatan Peninsula, edited by J. Mathews and B. Morrison, pp. 119-141. University of Arizona Press, Tucson
2008 A Preclassic Center in the Puuc Region: A Report on Xcoch Yucatan Mexico. Mexicon XXX:3:63-68.
Smyth, Michael P., David Ortegón Zapata, Nicholas P. Dunning, and Eric M. Weaver 2011a Settlement Dynamics, Climate Change, and Human Response at Xcoch in the Puuc Region of Yucatan, Mexico. In The Archaeology of Yucatan: New Directions and Data, edited by T. Stanton. BAR International Series, Oxford (in press).
Smyth Michael P., Ezra B.W. Zubrow, David Ortegón Zapata, Nicholas P. Dunning, and Philip van Beynen 2011b Paleoclimatic Reconstruction and Archaeological Investigations at Xcoch and the Puuc Region of Yucatan, Mexico: Exploratory Research into Arctic Climate Change and Maya Culture Processes. Report to the National Science Foundation Early-Concept Grants for Exploratory Research (EAGER), Arctic Social Sciences Program (www.FARINCO.org).
Stahle, D., W. J. Villanueva Diaz, D. J. Burnette, J. Cerano Paredes, R. R. Heim Jr., F. K. Fye, R. Acuna Soto, M. D. Therrell, M. K. Cleaveland, and D. K. Stahle 2010 Major Mesoamerican droughts of the past millennium. Goephysical Research Letters, Vol. 38:L05703, doi:10.1029/2010GL046472.
Stephens, John Lloyd 2008 Incidents of Travel in Yucatan. Vol. I & II. New York: Cosimoclassics.
Sutton, R. T., and D. L. R. Hodson 2005 Atlantic ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science 309:115-118
Trenberth, K. E., and D. J. Shea 2006 Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: L12704
Tourtellot, G., and J. A. Sabloff 1994 Puuc Development as Seen ftom Sayil. In Hidden Among the Hills: The Maya Archaeology of Northwest Yucatan, Acta Mesoamerica Vol. 5, edited by R.J. Prem, pp. 71-92.
Verlag van Flemming, Mockmuhl. Tourtellot, G., J. A. Sabloff, M. P. Smyth, L. V. Whitley, S. Walling, T. Gallareta N., C. Perez A., G. Andrews, and N. P. Dunning 1988 Mapping Community Patterns at Sayil, Yucatan, Mexico: The 1985 Season. Journal of New World Archaeology 8:1-24.
Tourtellot, G., J. A. Sabloff, P. A. McAnany, T. W. Killion, N. P. Dunning, K. Carmean, R. Cobos P., C. D. Dore, B. Fahmel B., S. L. Lopez V., C. Perez A., and S. Wurtzburg 1989 Archaeological Investigations at Sayil, Yucatan, Mexico, Phase II: the 1987 Field Season. University of Pittsburgh Anthropological Papers Nos. 1-2.
van der Leeuw, S. and C. Aschan-Leygonie 2001 A Long-Term Perspective on Resilience in Socio-natural Systems. Working Papers of the Santa Fe Institute 01-08-042.
Vaneeckhout, S. 2008 2500 years of social evolution in the northwest coastal Finland. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of Oulu.
Vivo Escoto, J.A. 1964 Weather and Climate of Mexico and Central America. In Handbook of Middle American Indians 1: Natural Environment and Early Cultures, edited by R. Wauchope and R. West, pp. 187-215. University of Texas, Austin.
Wahl, D., T. Schreiner, R. Byrne, and R. Hansen 2007 A Paleoecological Record from a Late Classic Maya Reservoir in the Northern Peten. Latin American Antiquity 18:212-222. 7
Webster, J. W., G. A. Brook, L. B. Railsback, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, C. Alexander, and P. P. Reeder. 2007 Stalagmite Evidence from Belize Indicating Significant Drought at the Time of Preclassic Abandonment, the Maya Hiatus, and the Classic Maya Collapse. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 250-1-17.
Weidie, A.E., and W. C.Ward 1976 Carbonate Rocks and Hydrology of the Yucatan Peninsula. New Orleans Geology Society, New Orleans.
Wheatley, D., and M. Gillings 2002 Spatial technology and archaeology: the archaeological applications of GIS. Taylor & Francis, New York.
Willey, G. R. 1974 The Classic Maya Collapse: A “Rehearsal” for the Collapse? In Mesoamerican Archaeology: New Approaches, edited by N. Hammond, pp. 417-433. University of Texas Press, Albuquerque.
Wilson, E. M. 1980 Physical geography of the Yucatan Peninsula. In Yucatan: A World Apart, edited by E. Mosely and E. Ter ry, pp.5-40. University of Alabama, University, Alabama.
Zubrow, Ezra B. W., Michael P. Smyth, David Ortegón Zapata, Nicholas P. Dunning, and Eric M. Weaver 2010 “Paleoclimatic Reconstruction and Archaeological Investigations at Xcoch and the Puuc Region of Yucatan, Mexico: Exploratory Research into Arctic Climate Change and Maya Culture Processes.” Report to the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. (www.FARINCO.org).